British Columbia could be in for a bad fire season this summer according to the latest measurements of the province’s fast disappearing snowpack.

Environment Minister Barry Penner says the provincial snowpack has been decreasing since January, an unprecedented situation considering that the mountain snowpack usually builds until mid April before starting to melt.

Penner says February 2010 was the warmest on record in several areas of the province. Castlegar in the West Kootenay had the lowest February snowfall total ever recorded and the weather station at the Canadian Rockies International Airport only recorded 1.8 cm of snow for the month, which is also believed to be a record.

The province has more than 100 automated snow survey stations scattered around at upper elevations in all the major river drainages in the province with the closest one to Cranbrook being located at Moyie Mountain. These stations broadcast data by satellite every three hours to the River Forecast Centre in Victoria.

This winter the Moyie Mountain station started out with a snowpack of 108 per cent of normal Dec. 1, 2009, a total which dropped to 91 per cent of normal by Jan. 1, 2010, 82 per cent of normal by Feb. 1 and 72 per cent of normal by March 1 this year.

At Morrissey Ridge near Fernie, the snowpack total was 94 per cent of normal on Dec. 1, 200 and 65 per cent of normal by March 1, 2010. Normally 80 per cent of the snow that’s going to fall all winter will have fallen by March 1 which only leaves about six more weeks for the snow to accumulate in the mountains.

Weather over the province the past two months has been dominated by a moderate to strong El Nino, which usually brings mild and dry conditions and can even lead to drought in the summer. The effects of the El Nino could be seen by all the bare ground at Cypress Mountain during the Winter Olympics and the early disappearance of snow in most of the valley bottoms of the province this winter.

Snow pack levels in the province currently range from 65 per cent of normal in the East Kootenay to 83 per cent in the Columbia and 95 per cent in the North Thompson near Blue River.

Penner says while cooler weather and lower freezing levels this week are welcome, the below average snowpack across the province could present water supply challenges this summer including low reservoirs, dry forests and poor pasture conditions.

Kootenay Livestock Association (KLA) General Manager Faye Street says she’s concerned about the impact the lack of snow-melt water could have on livestock this year. More than 90 per cent of local cattle are pastured on unirrigated Crown grazing land, she said.

“If it doesn’t rain soon, it’s going to have a severe impact, especially after the calving season is over. So people better pray for rain.”

A bad fire season would also be hard on cattle being grazed in the backcountry, she said. “It’s no fun trying to gather them up when a forest fire is burning.”

Jesse Ellis, a fire weather forecaster at the Southeast Forest Centre in Castlegar, said if we get a wet spring and early summer the fire season might not be so bad this summer. However, the low snowpack levels now do pose a threat, he says.

“The below normal snowpack could result in earlier spring grassland fires than normal. Fire will move quickly through dry grass before the green-up takes place,” he said.

Ellis said people should keep in mind that the high elevation snowpack in the province is close to normal and not nearly as low as the lower elevation and valley bottom snowpack. This could also help prevent a bad fire season this summer, he said.

Meanwhile, the drought-like conditions could make it difficult for BC Hydro to fill its various reservoirs around the province this summer because they depend mainly on snow melt in the spring. Streamflow into BC Hydro’s reservoirs is currently about 90 per cent of normal and the ultimate level of the reservoirs this summer will depend on the weather over the next six weeks, said a Hydro spokesman.